Why the ANC should be worried
The results of Wednesday’s by-elections, including two in the Eastern Cape, provide a fascinating insight into the state of play in the ongoing tussle between the ANC and the Congress of the People.
The ANC won both Eastern Cape by-elections in Adelaide and in Alice but the victories are only a small part of the story.
The ANC was quick to issue a statement crowing that “claims that the ANC has been losing support in the province have thus been proven grossly exaggerated.”
The party should have spent some time examining their results more closely before shouting about their victories.
In practically every one of the by-elections held around the country the ANC lost significant support in wards which it held previously with strong majorities.
In some areas the drop in support compared to the previous local government elections is dramatic.
For example, in an Upington ward previously won with over 90 percent of the vote, the ANC managed 73 percent. In a Kimberly ward where the ANC previously dominated with 94 percent of the vote, this time round it managed only 67 percent.
In many wards where ANC support has dropped they have lost directly to Cope or to an independent presumably aligned to Cope.
Most telling was its performance in the Alice ward where candidate Tobile Lima took 73,32 percent of the vote.
Now, that should be considered a fine result by any measure – except when compared to the party’s performance in the last local government elections when the ANC won 97,5 percent of the vote.
So, just three years later, the ANC has seen its majority plummet by 24 percentage points.
This has occurred, bear in mind, in Alice the home of Fort Hare University and pretty much the intellectual heartland of the ANC where leaders like Oliver Tambo and Nelson Mandela were educated.
So where did these votes go? To Cope, a party which came from nowhere to claim 25,8 percent of the vote.
This outcome is far more significant than the ANC’s victory.
What is also significant is the relatively low turnout with less than 55 percent of registered voters making their mark.
This suggests that in a traditional ANC stronghold like Alice that there is a significant population of undecided voters, providing enormous opportunity for opposition parties over the coming months as we head towards a national election.
So, rather than crowing about its victories, the ANC might want to spend some time learning from the lesson it was handed in this week’s by-elections around the country.
Cope is a real threat and it is taking ANC votes.
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January 29th, 2009 - 11:27
Nice analysis Andrew, it helps paint the bigger picture behind the propaganda. Of course, expect to be flamed by the you-know-whos
January 29th, 2009 - 16:10
Thanks to the people of South Africa for affording analysts an opportunity to different opinion makers such as Andrew Trench.
These are some of those who were such their thumbs, wishing the dismal failure of the ANC in these by elections. It is without a doubt, this purported expect in political analysis is very disappointed indeed.
What is disappointing him is that Daily Dispatch and many of his friends were sharing the sentiments that say, ANC is dead in the Eastern Cape province.
Ooh!!! Shame, they dream as they write on this site.
Where did you see organisation of extreme opportunists and counter revolutionaries succeeds in South Africa?
They are in alliance with Mr. Lucas Mangophe, a former Bantustan leader of Bophuthatswana; Gen. Bantu Holomisa, a Military General of notorious Transkei Defence Force (TDF); Ms. Helen Zille, a liberal of Democratic Party which is parading as a changed organisation and hell-bent to protect the interests of the former apartheid architectures; Mr. Gatsha Buthelezi a well know puppet of the Nationalist Party in Zululand.
All of them hope to defeat the ANC, and a clear message to them is that they must know their daytime dreams will never be realised.
Come elections, they will avoid all media institutions as they have done on these by-elections due to humiliation, as they would have performed dismally in elections 2009. They will all cry foul, we anticipate that.
The movement of the People and the only Congress of the People of 1955 would have triumph. All counter revolutionaries will be punished severely by the workers and the poor people of our country.
Viva ANC Viva!!!!
Viva Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Mhlanganyelwa Zuma Viva!!!!
Viva President in waiting Viva!!