Andrew Trench notes from the revolution

21Dec/07Off

Some scary Zuma numbers

Here is something to think about:

  • There are  621237 paid-up members of the ANC;
  • There were just under 21 million registered votes in the last elections;
  • South Africa has a population of just under 48 million;
  • In Polokwane at the ANC conference this week there were about 3900 delegates who could vote.
  • South Africa's future in the end was decided by the 2329 delegates who voted for Jacob Zuma. That's roughly 0.005% of the population.
  • You have to wonder if we have the strongest political system in the world? President Mbeki would be correct to call an early election as clearly our government needs a new mandate.

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    19Dec/07Off

    Zuma and the way ahead

    JACOB Zuma’s victory which saw him  take the ANC presidency will come  as no surprise to many, but the  implications will be felt for years to come.
    This decision will reverberate not only  through the ANC branches which stood  behind him but through South African society more broadly. South Africa today will be a different place to South Africa of yesterday.
    Yesterday South Africa was led by Thabo Mbeki, the ANC and country’s president. Today, South Africa is led by Zuma.  As ANC president, his power is omnipotent. In many ways he will be more powerful than the president of the country.

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    11Dec/07Off

    Tyranny of the majority

    Over the last few days, like many South Africans, I have been considering the momentous events which are about to unfold in Polokwane as we watch the finish of the race for the ANC presidency. For some reason the phrase "tryanny of the majority" popped into my head and I did some googling around the source - variously attributed to John Stuart Mill or Alexis de Tocqueville. (see Wikipedia)

    Anyway I came across an online copy of Mill's On Liberty. I think its worth a read so see this extract:

    "The will of the people, moreover, practically means the will of the most numerous or the most active part of the people; the majority, or those who succeed in making themselves accepted as the majority; the people, consequently, may desire to oppress a part of their number; and precautions are as much needed against this as against any other abuse of power. The limitation, therefore, of the power of government over individuals loses none of its importance when the holders of power are regularly accountable to the community, that is, to the strongest party therein. This view of things, recommending itself equally to the intelligence of thinkers and to the inclination of those important classes in European society to whose real or supposed interests democracy is adverse, has had no difficulty in establishing itself; and in political speculations "the tyranny of the majority" is now generally included among the evils against which society requires to be on its guard."

    I. Introductory. Mill, John Stuart. 1869. On Liberty

    Think that this was first written more than 130 years ago and would seem to be as relevant today as it ever was.

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    2Dec/07Off

    A hard choice lies ahead

    President Thabo Mbeki has told a Sunday newspaper that he is not ruling out the option of calling an early general election should he lose to Jacob Zuma in the race for the ANC presidency later this month.
    The President is right to consider this option as evidence mounts that he has lost the confidence and support of his constituency. The nomination process by the ANC’s provincial structures has shown that Mbeki no longer enjoys the confidence of his party.
    He may well have no choice but to consider an early election. He could, as the Sunday Times pointed out, face losing his job in an humiliating vote of no confidence in Parliament.
    Such a move would be shameful end to the Mbeki era – and his political career.
    It would blight his legacy, a legacy which he had hoped would remember him as a modern, intellectual democrat.
    (this is an editorial for Monday's paper)

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    26Nov/07Off

    The Zuma Years Loom

    Very interesting news over the weekend on the ANC's support for Zuma and Mbeki from the various provinces. As we report today, Zuma has overwhelming support with a total of 2270 votes to Mbeki's 1396. Zuma has five provinces behind him versus Mbeki's four.
    This sets the scene for a fascinating tussle in Pholokwane next month but at this stage Zuma looks to be a shoe-in for ANC president and thus the next president of South Africa.
    Rubbing my journalist's crystal ball, this is what I predict in the coming weeks:

  • At least one more "scandal" emerging with Zuma at the centre;
  • A major development on his pending possible prosecution on corruption charges;
  • Some very moderate messages coming out of Zuma targeting business and investor constituencies;
  • Some vigorous moves by Mbeki loyalists to try and swing closely fought provinces prior to the formal voting.
  • The weekend results must be hugely concerning to Mbeki. They are no less than a resounding vote of no confidence in his leadership. I'm not surprised that the Eastern Cape backed him but I'm amazed at how he appears to have been trounced in Gauteng with barely a third of the vote.

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